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Since his election win, Donald Trump has renewed his campaign to include Greenland into the USA. Initially many have discarded Trump’s words about buying Greenland from Denmark and not ruling out using military force if the European kingdom refuses. However, after his last week’s call with the Danish prime minister, threatening the NATO ally with tariffs, European officials now say they realized the U.S. president is serious.
The USA have tried to purchase or claim Greenland several times in the past, lending some precedent and logic to what at first seems like ridiculous stream of empty words. Beyond national security, thawing ice sheets in Greenland will provide large economic boons in the form of minerals and oil to whoever can grab it. Something China has understood, allegedly prompting the USA to intervene at several points when Chinese state and private companies wanted to execute mining and infrastructure projects in Greenland, some with possible military use.
Trump will most likely not buy Greenland from Denmark, as the island is largely autonomous and Danish leadership has ruled this out, even if it was legally possible. However, Greenland’s prime minister recently shifted in his rhetoric toward a plan for the island’s independence from Denmark and indicated willingness for closer cooperation with the USA, including on defense.
Therefore a deal may be struck between Trump and Greenland that will see the island independent and firmly within the U.S. sphere of influence, even if not included in the federation of states.
Greenland’s Uneasy Relationship with the Danes
Greenland has been claimed by Denmark since it formed a union with Norway in the 14th century. In the 18th century Greenland was turned into a colony, which it remained until 1953. Following revelations about Denmark’s colonial brutality, Greenland quickly turned to greater independence, finally achieving self-governance in 2009.
Currently, Denmark only manages Greenland’s defense and foreign affairs, the rest is largely in the hands of the local parliament and government. Much of the island’s political parties are for absolute independence, and the majority of population would vote for such future if given the opportunity in a referendum as well. Unlike Scotland, the Greenlandic government can organize a referendum unilaterally without any consent from Denmark.
So why does Greenland not move for independence? The answer is simple – money. Despite Greenland’s autonomy, Denmark still subsidizes approximately 50% of Greenland’s annual budget. This is because Greenland’s large oil and mineral deposits still remain under ice and unprofitable to exploit, so the country largely relies on fishing for income.
However, with the prospect of the ice sheet progressively melting, Greenland has been betting on the profits from mining to make its independence feasible. Soon after the 2009 self-governance achievement, Chinese companies came in promising to make this dream come true.
China’s Empty Promises and Military Interest
Chinese companies, both state and private, came into the country in a similar manner as elsewhere at the time. Claiming to be a neutral party, only interested in business and no politics, they presented themselves to the Greenlanders as a perfect counterbalance to the disliked Danish. And they proposed grandiose projects to build and expand mining operations as well as infrastructure, including two airports.
This was warmly welcomed by Greenland’s politicians and China has made many “friends” among the local elites. Chinese, and partially Chinese companies, have quickly started prospecting Greenland, promising long-term investments and access to PRC markets, promising an economic boom, all too good to be true.
But clearly, China was not interested only in the far away prospect of mining in Greenland. In 2016, an ostensibly private company attempted to acquire a former naval base on the island. This alarmed both Denmark and the USA, which allegedly blocked the sale.
The next year, China attempted to build a dual-use satellite ground base in Greenland in a collaboration with a local scientist, without his knowledge of the military purpose of the project. When revealed by a China researcher and a local newspaper, the base was scrapped, but a retired PLA Navy rear admiral already visited an official launch ceremony, proving the Chinese military’s interest in the project.
Chinese mining operations largely shared a similar fate. Part of them were stopped by Greenland’s ban of mining uranium and in 2021 the local government stripped a mining license from General Nice, the private company that attempted to buy the naval base, after the firm failed to keep its promises and because of inactivity at the site.
Overall, China’s flurry of proposals, that included the Chinese state building two airports with Chinese state money, was most likely primarily an influence operation. Other countries, such as the Czech Republic, experienced the same template. Chinese, usually ostensibly private, companies come with promises of vast investments with close support of the PRC state on its heels. Local politicians buy into this, using these promises to win over voters, while the elites get coopted by PRC officials trained in influence and manipulate – some of them working for intelligence.
While none of the investments materialize or end up benefiting the locals, the CCP creates a network of local allies among elites. A network it can utilize whenever the conditions allow for it.
“Buying” Greenland
Whatever truly guides Trump’s actions on Greenland, the U.S. has national interests grounds possibly sufficient for Washington to try to move the island closer to its sphere of influence. In fact, the USA tried to purchase and claim on several occasions in the previous two centuries, lending some logic to what some refer to as “madness” on Trump’s part.
Trump claims that the whole affair “really has to do with freedom of the world”. While this might not be about “freedom”, Greenland lies in a strategic position in the Arctic and in close proximity to the USA. Combined with Chinese geopolitical and military interest in the island, this can make a case for Washington to take a bold action in the affair.
And Greenlanders showed a certain amount of interest in negotiating with Trump. Among Trumps declarations of plans for Greenland, the island’s prime minister Múte Egede voiced his desire for the independence in his New Year’s address, a decision Reuters labels as “a significant change in the rhetoric surrounding the Arctic island’s future”. Egede also later stated that he was open to closer cooperation with the U.S. in mining and curiously, defense.
However, it is worth noting that the United States Space Force already has a large base in northwestern Greenland, so defense cooperation is not entirely new, as the base was built in 1940s in order to counter German war effort.
The Hill, a Washington-based newspaper, reported on a surprising, but non-transparent, poll by the U.S.-based Patriot Polling, which claimed that out of 416 persons surveyed in early January a majority of 57.3% wished to join the U.S. federation. While possibly unreliable, this poll might be what prompted Trump to say that Greenlanders “want to be with us”.
An actual U.S. military conquest of Greenland is highly improbable, a possibility of which Trump probably raised only as a means of forcing Denmark and Greenland to respond. However, if the USA provides enough investments, guarantees and other boons to Greenland, the U.S. might truly “buy” the island.
However, the most likely scenario is the one that the local population has been preparing for – an independence referendum that allows Greenland to align itself with the U.S. (or anyone else), which in turn provides enough funds to sustain and develop the local economy, one way or another.
In short, Trump may “buy” Greenland, but not from Denmark. And it is quite likely that Greenlanders will be open to striking a deal with the U.S., if the conditions are favorable and make their political dream come true. Still, the fate of Greenland remains in the hands of the Greenlanders and at least U.S. political leadership should grasp that reality if they want to eject Chinese influence from the country.
