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On November 5, 2024, the USA elected Donald Trump as the next president of the world’s still most important country. If taken at face value, Trump’s rhetoric and policy proposals would mean a massive restructuring of the federal government and a shift from many long-standing programs. We should expect ideological and political shifts in the rest of the world, as US politics continues to set trends, especially for European politics. However, Trump’s proposals could also significantly affect two other world regions – Latin America and Asia – slapping trade and escalating tensions, especially with China.
Trump has clearly won on two topics – border security and economy.
Trump’s incessant attacks on Biden and Harris’s alleged failure to secure the Mexican border and stop illegal immigration created an atmosphere of fear and an image of Trump as the strong man, who will put an end to the perceived crisis. In October, Trump surprised many by threatening to use the Alien Enemies Act of 1798, a law that would allow him to deport possibly over 20 million people, if he declares Mexico, or specifically Mexican human traffickers, as wartime enemies. These millions of deportees would include people of many, chiefly Latin American, nationalities, tear apart partially legal immigrant families and lead to a diplomatic crisis with countries of those people’s origin.
“To me the most beautiful word in the dictionary is ‘tariff,’” said Trump in October at a business leaders’ meeting. The former president has repeatedly iterated his intent to set higher tariffs on imports, especially from China. Trump already set imports tariffs on Chinese goods during his first presidency. From a policy perspective, this move has been viewed as successful and has been adopted by the Biden administration, too. However, while there is a bi-partisan consensus on the need to act against China’s expansionism, the Harris campaign denounced Trump’s new tariff proposals as a threat to global trade and domestic consumer prices, raising concerns that Trump could go too far.
Depending on the actual implementation, these new tariffs could seriously damage Chinese economy, which is still very much export-oriented. But experts warn Trump’s protectionism will likely affect other Asian exporters, and potentially other US trade partners, including Europe and Latin America. In particular, Brazil is already preparing itself for new import tariffs. But other Latin American countries, especially those with left-wing governments, might easily become targets as well. By protecting US domestic business interests, Trump could yet again disrupt global supply chains and trade relations.
Trump will also likely continue and expand on his policy of treating China as a threat. While, again, this strategy was adopted by the Democrats, too, Trump is posed to push harder against both China and US allies in the region, if they do not act enough against the Asian superpower. Some experts even predict that Trump could pressure Latin American and other countries to limit ties with China or to outright follow the example of Javier Milei’s Argentina (who by the way has toned down his anti-China rhetoric).
The likelihood of Trump adopting a more hostile stance toward China is also supported by his cabinet picks. Trump allegedly selected Marco Rubio for Secretary of State. Rubio called China’s ambition to redefine international norms and institutions and effectively repurpose the global world order to serve the Communist Party’s interests “the singular geopolitical issue of the 21st century”. Rubio has been one of the first to demand the federal government to act against TikTok and Huawei.
Similarly, Trump supposedly chose Michael Waltz, a retired Army National Guard officer, as his national security advisor, a key security and foreign policy position. Waltz called for a US boycott of the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics over China’s suppression of information regarding Covid-19.
At the same time, typical for Trump’s chaotic “America First” foreign policy, Trump is posed to create a rift with a strategic ally in the region – Taiwan. The president-elect wants Taiwan to pay the US for “protection” and to buy more US weapon systems. But Trump goes further as he claimed that Taiwan “stole” the USA’s “chip business” this October. If meant seriously, Trump could regulate chip imports from Taiwan or disrupt semiconductor cooperation between Taiwanese and US companies. One way or another, Taiwan is already preparing itself for a new uneasy chapter in the US-Taiwan relations.
Trump and his administration will escalate tensions with China. Combined with damaging key partnerships in the region and Trump’s chaotic and rude nature, this could inadvertently support China’s position. However, it is true that Trump and the Republicans have been in some ways more effective in countering China’s threat to regional stability and global order than the Democrats, who often failed to act on their words. Thus, the new administration’s China policy might bring some significantly positive outcomes. However, as in many other areas, we, the rest of the world, have to be prepared to do more on our own to protect our institutions and values, because Trump’s USA is unpredictable and not a country one should count on.
